As I mentioned previously, things
are bad - and yes, they are still to get worse (more on this
shortly).
Here’s a clip from
Trump during his 2018 UN General Assembly (link here):
If only somebody could of predicted how Germany’s energy security
dependency on Russia would destabilise Europe. Note how they laugh
at him in response, I wish I could get their reaction to this
video today.
Of course, in response to oil security issues, Biden is reversing his
reversal of Trump-era policies. That won’t be enough though and these
production processes can not be spun up as quickly as an AWS server.
Wheat
An update on the state of wheat
from Trading Economics, with some choice comparisons:
Watching the markets
The markets likely overreacted to wheat and crude oil - but you know
what they didn’t react to? Corn. Corn is still steadily rising for the
same reason wheat will begin to rise again soon too:
Energy - There is an unbelievable requirement for energy in
the farming sector, way more than people realise.
Delayed demand response - We may have the farmlands to meet
our wheat needs, but it takes about half a year at least to ramp up
production. A lot of pieces need to come together. It takes a lot of
planning and resources to sow a field.
Shipping - Even if we had the production, the shipping
system is in complete disarray right now. There’s a very high chance it
just sits in a port rotting away.
Inflation - The currency values are falling, so even if
wheat value remains consistent, it will simply be worth more of a
devaluing currency.
Recession - GDP is falling dramatically, we were somewhat
in a bubble prior to COVID. The time of unicorns
is over.
Things are still looking bad.
Way Out?
I have given a lot of doom and gloom, are there any ways out?
Reduce regulation regarding crops, lower the boundary to get fields
planted. Relax things such as fertilizer, pesticide, etc.
Lower food related taxes. I know there is a recession and heavy
inflation, but you will raise zero taxes if people are starving and
protesting. Maintaining food security is absolutely critical.
Coffee Space 
