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Trump Prediction

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Preview Image

As I mentioned previously, things are bad - and yes, they are still to get worse (more on this shortly).

Here's a clip from Trump during his 2018 UN General Assembly (link here):

If only somebody could of predicted how Germany's energy security dependency on Russia would destabilise Europe. Note how they laugh at him in response, I wish I could get their reaction to this video today.

Of course, in response to oil security issues, Biden is reversing his reversal of Trump-era policies. That won't be enough though and these production processes can not be spun up as quickly as an AWS server.

Wheat

An update on the state of wheat from Trading Economics, with some choice comparisons:

Watching the markets

Watching the markets

The markets likely overreacted to wheat and crude oil - but you know what they didn't react to? Corn. Corn is still steadily rising for the same reason wheat will begin to rise again soon too:

  1. Energy - There is an unbelievable requirement for energy in the farming sector, way more than people realise.
  2. Fertilizer - China have moved towards banning the export of fertilizer and now so does Russia. Note that both of these were prior to the current situation - it's even worse now.
  3. Delayed demand response - We may have the farmlands to meet our wheat needs, but it takes about half a year at least to ramp up production. A lot of pieces need to come together. It takes a lot of planning and resources to sow a field.
  4. Shipping - Even if we had the production, the shipping system is in complete disarray right now. There's a very high chance it just sits in a port rotting away.
  5. Inflation - The currency values are falling, so even if wheat value remains consistent, it will simply be worth more of a devaluing currency.
  6. Recession - GDP is falling dramatically, we were somewhat in a bubble prior to COVID. The time of unicorns is over.

Things are still looking bad.

Way Out?

I have given a lot of doom and gloom, are there any ways out?

Let's see. I really hope I am wrong.