Coffee Space


Market Predictions Part 2

Preview Image



Previous predictions were pretty far off base. Wheat dipped. Energy stayed about the same. Metals stayed about the same. Grains stayed about the same. Currency stayed about the same.

So what went wrong? I think it was the scale I was looking at the data on. I was looking at the scale of a week previously and this was too far zoomed in to really recognise a long-term trend. Going forwards I look at most data over a 3 month period.

Another point of note is that I didn’t really make measurable predictions either. I need to guess a range/value and time frame to expect this in.


Going forwards I make the following predictions…

Chicago Wheat Futures

Wheat should hold about the same as long as no real progress is made in Ukraine on the front of peace talks and Russia’s invasion also makes no progress.

Prediction: On 25/03/2022, we are within the range 1075 and 1055.

Energy Futures

Energy will generally stay about the same, we may now see a slow but gradual increase over time.

Prediction: On 25/03/2022, CL=F remains above 100.

Metal Futures

Metal will likely make a slow creep upwards. Russia is a massive exporter of Palladium.

Prediction: On 25/03/2022, PA=F remains above 2400.

Update: [22/03/2022] Australia have export banned Aluminium to Russia, causing quite a spike. This should only affect Aluminium for now, unless further restrictions are planned by Australia or allies.

Grain Futures

I believe that grains will continue their general trend upwards. It is already clear that Ukraine is already delayed on harvesting and will not be able to export. Russia will likely also not be in a position to export food any time soon - even with peace talks breaking out tomorrow.

Prediction: On 25/03/2022, ZW=F remains above 1030.

Update: [22/03/2022] It looks like there is a massive flare-up of bird-flu in the US, which has already killed some 12 million birds. Expect this to add to the food security crisis.

USD Currency Exchange

I’m not sure it’s possible to make any predictions here, the US dollar has just been incredibly unstable during these times.

Crypto Futures

The variation on cryptocurrency is simply insane, good luck to anybody trying to make predictions there. I would suggest that if the US dollar collapses further then the crypto market will see a pick-up as trust shifts from traditional money.