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Recently, Trump issued Gaza an ultimatum: Release all of the hostages before Saturday mid-day, or ‘all hell is going to break out’ if hostages are not returned. He allowed movement for Israel to override the comment, but Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that he will uphold this deadline, going on to prepare the IDF soldiers.
I recently discussed this with somebody, and some interesting conversation resulted, which I believe is worth echoing here.
Hamas, the terrorist militia, have been arguing for a while that Israel have broken the terms of the ceasefire. There are unconfirmed rumours that there was a failed stop at a road block, which caused the IDF soldiers to open fire. The reason they would do this is because they cannot be sure that there is not a suicide bomber.
Working theory: Hamas wanted the ceasefire to be broken.
Israel have complained that the condition of the hostages being returned are becoming increasingly worse. This time they appeared significantly underweight, and had medical issues. Note the following:
It was not known if Mr Sharabi was aware his wife and children had been killed by Hamas over a year ago. His Bristol-born wife Lianne Sharabi, along with their children 16-year-old Noiya and 13-year-old Yahel, were killed while Mr Sharabi and his brother Yossi were taken hostage.
Yossi was later killed while in captivity.
They are clearly known to have been killing hostages in captivity.
Imagine for a moment that Hamas have been releasing hostages in dribs and drabs, not because of some great plan, but because it takes them a while to get them back to a reasonable health. They probably released the most healthy first, and now they are stuck with the least healthy hostages. Maybe they were overzealous and seriously injured, tortured or killed their other hostages.
It’s entirely possible they over-inflated their hostage numbers to better their negotiating position for a ceasefire, it could be that they don’t have a well disciplined military and they did not have an accurate view of the situation. In any case, if there is not the number of healthy hostages stated, they have a serious problem. Suddenly you may want to halt the ceasefire.
This would have been a good idea, if US President Trump had not got involved. He has essentially said to continue with the ceasefire, or else. Now they really are in a predicament. Trump has been negotiating with nearby Countries to take as many civilians as possible, but there is little motivation to do so. Not only have they hosted Palestinians during this time, and the novelty wore off, but they have historic issues with the people causing lots of trouble in their Countries.
Iran are rumoured to be encouraging Hamas to restart the conflict, as Saudi Arabia have backed away, and they believe they can call Trump’s bluff.
Iran also look for a distraction as anti-government protests and riots increase in the Country, although it is strangely unreported in most Western media, despite being a considerable piece of news. Apparently inflation is currently 300% in Iran, with some workers not being paid for months, being financially ruined if they get paid or not. In protest, it is rumoured they experience cuts in all utilities, including water, electric and gas. It is also said that Iranian officials have moved their families out of Iran.
I believe Trump is unlikely to back down, especially with Israel backing him. Publicly meeting with neighbouring Countries is a real sign that he is serious.
I believe this leaves few options:
I think in any case, Hamas is doomed. Both the US and Israel want to see them eradicated, and they have no neighbours willing to embrace them.
I don’t know what will happen Saturday, but I predict if we run to the deadline, it will be intense.