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Biden Victory #opinion

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The following are some random thoughts on the recent election. Don't take it too seriously. It's just some discussion on points I consider important - this of course will change from person to person.

Please understand, before assuming my political leanings, I'm actually a left-of-centre libertarian:

Results from politicalcompass.org

Results from politicalcompass.org

Prior-Predictions

Prior to election day, the Democrats were predicted to have a "blue wave" - the same rhetoric we saw in 2016 with Hilary vs Trump. Almost every poll predicted a Biden win, with most above 10 points. Newspapers were making predictions like "99% sure of a Biden victory". Apparently they had "learned" from 2016 and this time it was for sure correct.

I predicted that this would not be the case and it would be really tight (not that it's worth much, because I didn't write it down). How did I predict that? I saw the very clear Trump support at the packed rallies, Celebrities breaking tradition and supporting Trump (and getting the resulting Twitter backlash) and massive support from the backbone of America - the working class. Biden of course had the blue collar workers.

Why was it so far off? I believe they over-polled in the cities during the lockdowns, refused to poll anybody not wearing a mask (likely supporter of Trump) and Trump does have a "shy supporter" base. They failed to correct for these factors and therefore misses the supporter base he has.

You have very clear support in the rural areas for Trump and by minorities. I saw an amusing take suggesting "Trump for the Latino vote, Biden got the Latinx vote". The truth seems to be quite simple, the working class care about putting bread on the table: Biden was suggesting raising taxes and getting rid of the oil industry, Trump was walking about bringing back manufacturing and pushing against political correctness.

If anything is clear from this election it's this: The polls cannot be trusted. If anything, they may even be considered as a political tool for the mainstream media at this point - whom are heavily biased for Democrats and often work in metropolitan areas.

Likely Outcome

Update: Since beginning to write this, the news media have declared Biden has won, despite this fact still being contested. Technically he's not won until he's sworn in - but you won't see social media censor these claims (weird).

At this point, it's highly unlikely Trump will get the numbers needed. Georgia and Pennsylvania (in conjunction with either Nevada or Arizona) were the last paths forward. The mainstream media will declare a Biden victory in the next few days and most people will accept it.

FoxNews Election Map

FoxNews Election Map

There is of course this lingering feeling of potential election fraud from the Republicans suspecting the Democrats as having pulled some stunts in key states, which, from what I can see so far, may actually have legs. What I can't see though is that there would be enough difference in votes for it to make a difference - and the sorts of fraud we are speaking of would be incredibly difficult and expensive to investigate. For some of these swing places Trump would need to find in excess of 10k votes.

The Republicans hold out hope that the courts will side in favour of Trump over late ballots, but I suspect this not to be the case for a few reasons:

  1. They have their own political careers to look after. If they are seen as being biased, they're out.
  2. Their duty to their Country is stronger than their duty to Trump. I would suggest this is even truer of the Republic judges who have strong sense of national pride.
  3. Any obvious bias will be under extreme scrutiny from the world. The Democrats will also have to believe they have lost in order for the court ruling to have weight. You can't tell people the sky is pink and have them believe it (it's not Communism yet).
  4. If Biden still wins but they ruled against him, their futures are in jeopardy. Biden may see a court that will frustrate his presidency and pack it.

I would suggest a court ruling in favour of Trump is highly unlikely.

Trump Positives

For all the bad things said about Trump, I think I could quite easily argue he has been one of the least war-loving presidents. He hasn't entered the US into another long, drawn out war and has in general pushed to remove troops from Syria and more slowly from Afghanistan and Iraq.

I've heard arguments along the lines of "he has issued the largest number of unauthorised drone strikes", which may be true, but firstly this is very cherry-picked (drone strikes are becoming easier and cheaper in coming years), secondly this doesn't compare him against many previous presidents (it's a modern ability) and thirdly I would consider this much better than a war by a long shot.

To add, Trump has also been rebuilding negotiations between Israel and many middle-eastern Countries, as well as rebuilding communication between the US and North Korea. He's done great work in renegotiating bad deals (with Canada and the EU for example) and has generally pushed forwards with the best US interests.

Trump also pushed back on dangerous foreign actors such as Iran for breaking their agreement to reduce the manufacture of weapons grade uranium, something the Iranians were happily getting away with under Obama (the UN and NATO these days really don't exert much force).

He also pushed back on Saudi Arabia and Russia (very cleverly) by removing Iranian oil sanctions, flooding the market with cheap oil and bringing the Saudi Arabia and (mostly) Russian economies to their knees. This also allowed the US to stock pile large amounts of dirt-cheap oil to replenish their own reserves (something that was dwindling at the time).

By far his greatest achievement has been recognising China (the CCP) as a very real enemy and the consequent trade war. Here are just a few reasons why China is dangerous:

Not to worry though. China's latest 5-year plan is to break economic dependencies on external Countries, but to increase other Countries economic dependency on China. They are also pushing the idea of "dual financial systems", one run by traditional banks and one by micro-transactions via virtual currency. At a talk recently hosted in New Zealand, representatives of both China and New Zealand were excited at the prospect of rolling out micro-transactions such as Alipay, a virtual currency which is completely Chinese owned and run. When a Country loses Control of either it's army or it's economy, it's essential lost control. The future looks bright!

I could literally keep going all day, but you get the point. Any one of these points would raise concerns, yet the West and EU happily turn a blind eye. The EU is even looking to strengthen its ties with China, I'm sure that will go down well.

Trump is the only politician so far really holding their feet to the fire, publicly and openly challenging the CCP. Note how after taking this action, none of the "freedom" loving Countries joined him. Their bravery is noted.

Trump Negatives

Trump leaves a lot to be desired. I think one of his biggest problems is his communication skills - they can often leave viewers and journalists stumped, which often leaves wiggle room for them to make the least charitable interpretation of absolutely every word he says (because they are of course biased against him).

I would suggest that the best thing Trump did was to have Kayleigh McEnany as his press secretary. She spent time working for Fox News and CNN and absolutely runs rings around the press during briefings. The Republicans should run her for president in 2024. She ticks all the "progressive" boxes for her characteristics (a strong woman leader and has a black husband), communicates very well and is genuinely quite smart - and is Republican.

Trump removed Obamacare with the promise of "creating something better", then completely failed to deliver. During his recent campaign, he then only made vague promises to "something great", but never gave any details. COVID sure would have been a great time and excuse to roll something out... He really missed with this one.

Biden Concerns

The leaks regarding that laptop were quite concerning and severely under represented in the press. It clearly shows Biden's son selling access to Biden for (a lot of) money. How on earth can anybody argue that Biden's son being on a Ukraine energy board being anything other than his political connections? You can't. It's as simple as that. Of course, when the Democrats are faced with such accusations, their default position is "no u". The laptop is a Russian Asset. Trump is a Russian asset. Tulsi Gabbot is a Russian asset. I think the truth might even be a Russian asset at this point.

Again, a severely under-reported story. The news media has refused to print anything about the revelation of Biden's daughter's diary contents. The contents speak for themselves:

“Was I molested. I think so – I can’t remember specifics but I do remember trauma,” wrote the author, before listing a series of potential incidents, one of which may have included Ashley Biden’s cousin Caroline Biden, as the author says she remembers “being somewhat sexualized” alongside a person named “Caroline.”

The author then wrote that she remembers “showers with my dad” that were “probably not appropriate.”

This is verifiable:

National File’s whistleblower also has a recording of Ashley Biden admitting the diary is hers, and employed a handwriting expert who verified the pages were all written by Ashley.

Either the National File need to be sued into oblivion, or, Biden shouldn't be running for president, he should be running from prison. Add this to the videos of him sniffing young girls hair and the claims of his involvement with Epstein, you start to get a little concerned. Anything but Trump - though!

Validation

One concern I have with a Biden victory is that is reaffirms that riots are the way to get what you want. He never said they were bad, he actively supported them and even helped bail out persons arrested by police who had been caught smashing/burning/attacking. If he acts against them now then he loses a bunch of his supported base - metropolitan coffee sippers reading left-leaning news. The news will only support him for so long, they quite enjoyed attacking Trump as president and will yearn for that criticism revenue again. Nobody buys a paper that just says "everything is going well" after all.

Another concern I have is with the continuation of the agenda backed by critical race theory. To not be racist is to make decisions not based on race, but these guys are the opposite, they actually want to racially discriminate (which they call "positive discrimination", the sort of wording the KKK may have used). They want to repeal anti-discrimination laws (that protect people against racism) in favour of their form of racism. I'm sure nothing will go wrong. Watch out for this movement, mark my words.

One of the big reasons the mainstream media was against Trump was because he threatened to turn them into publishers, something that removes their status as a platform and makes them liable for the things on their platforms. Trump's argument is that once they start filtering and censoring, they stop being an open platform and start editorialising content, making them publishers. Clearly this is a massive problem for these tech giants, and so they have spent the last year or more actively censoring the right-leaning Americans on their platforms, including Trump where possible. I believe this will only get worse under Biden as he has made no efforts to stop it and it currently benefits him. Now that the tech industry have flexed this power and gotten away with it, there's no reason for them to stop.

Going Forward

Given we are likely to have a Biden presidency, there are a few things I hope for:

Going forwards, the elections need a few changes:

Finally, things I think the Republicans can do: